Explore Our Research Capabilities
Mercavelo Research covers the full spectrum of analytical needs that arise in commodity-intensive business environments, from real-time price monitoring to multi-year strategic outlook studies. Our capabilities are organised to serve clients at every stage of the decision-making cycle, whether they are negotiating a spot purchase today or planning a procurement strategy for the next three years. Each capability area is staffed by specialists who understand not only the data but the commercial context in which it is used. We continuously invest in our data infrastructure and modelling tools to ensure that the breadth of our coverage does not come at the cost of analytical depth.
We monitor spot prices and forward curves across dozens of benchmark commodities, aggregating data from exchange feeds, physical market reports and OTC broker indications into a consistent, comparable format. Price series are updated on frequencies ranging from intraday for exchange-traded commodities to weekly for less liquid physical markets. Clients receive clean, audit-ready price data that can be integrated directly into procurement and risk management systems.
Many commodity contracts reference published price indices, and understanding how those indices are constructed — and where they may diverge from physical market reality — is critical for negotiating favourable terms. Mercavelo Research provides independent benchmarking analysis that allows clients to evaluate whether an index-linked contract reflects the actual market they are buying or selling in. We also help clients assess alternative pricing mechanisms when standard indices prove misaligned with their specific supply chains.
Volatile commodity prices can have material impacts on margins, budget adherence and competitive positioning, making structured price risk assessment an essential planning tool. We quantify price risk in terms that are directly usable by finance and risk management teams, including historical volatility analysis, value-at-risk estimates and scenario-based sensitivity testing. Our assessments are grounded in the specific commodities and price exposure profiles of each client, not generic market commentary.
We compile and analyse customs-level trade data to map how commodity volumes move between countries and regions, identifying which origin markets are gaining or losing share and where demand is growing fastest. This granularity allows clients to spot supply concentration risks, evaluate alternative sourcing regions and understand how their competitors are positioned within global supply chains. Trade flow intelligence is particularly valuable when geopolitical shifts or policy changes begin to redirect established commodity corridors.
The cost of moving commodities from origin to destination is often as important as the commodity price itself, yet it is frequently underanalysed in procurement and trading decisions. Mercavelo Research tracks freight rates, port congestion indicators and logistics cost indices for the trade routes most relevant to our clients, integrating these into landed cost assessments that reflect total economic exposure. This gives procurement teams a complete picture of what a commodity actually costs to deliver, not just what it costs at the loading port.
Trade policy changes — including tariffs, export restrictions, import licensing requirements and environmental regulations — can disrupt commodity supply chains quickly and with significant cost consequences. Our regulatory monitoring service tracks policy developments across the markets relevant to each client, with timely alerts when changes are announced and analytical briefings explaining their likely commercial impact. We help clients build the contingency thinking needed to respond effectively when trade conditions shift.
Understanding the structure, capacity and reliability of key commodity-producing regions is foundational to sound sourcing strategy. Mercavelo Research produces detailed origin market profiles that cover production capacity, infrastructure constraints, political risk factors, export infrastructure and typical quality parameters for the commodities produced in each region. These profiles are used by procurement teams to build supplier shortlists, assess dual-sourcing options and prepare for supply disruption scenarios.
Our short-term forecasts, covering horizons of one to three months, are built on a combination of supply-demand balance modelling, seasonal adjustment and real-time market intelligence from trade contacts and price reporters. These forecasts are designed for use in immediate procurement and trading decisions, and are updated frequently to reflect the latest available data. Each forecast is accompanied by a concise rationale and a clearly stated range of uncertainty.
Longer-horizon outlooks require a different analytical approach, integrating structural factors such as capacity investment cycles, energy transition dynamics, population and income growth, and evolving trade policy frameworks into forward-looking price and volume projections. Mercavelo Research publishes annual outlook reports for major commodity markets, supported by underlying model documentation that allows clients to interrogate our assumptions. These outlooks are used to anchor capital expenditure plans, long-term supply contracts and strategic sourcing strategies.
No forecast is certain, and the most valuable analytical service we provide is often helping clients understand the range of plausible outcomes rather than a single-point prediction. Our scenario analyses define distinct market environments — such as a supply disruption, a demand shock or a policy reversal — and trace their implications through to specific price and volume outcomes for the commodities relevant to each client. This structured approach to uncertainty gives planning teams a disciplined framework for testing their strategies against adverse conditions.